What are the key demographics in order to win the majority?
The demographics in this race are key to winning the majority of voters. It is evident that both of the major party candidates have strong-holds over specific groups of people. For example, Jason Kander has a double digit lead with women, but Roy Blunt has a marginally similar lead with men. This can be compared to the age demographic of 18-34 which Kander has stabilized a lead in, whereas Blunt has a lead in the polls with middle-age and older voters. Additionally, Kander has a pull on the St. Louis and Kansas City metropolitan area voters, but Blunt has a pull on the rural area voters. Also, Kander is more favorable among black voters, but Blunt leads among white voters by over 20 points.
According to the work of political scientist Paul Allen Beck, African Americans have been identifying more and more with the Democratic Party over the last two decades. In 1990, 64% of African Americans identified as Democrats. This was a low, since this number has increased to 87% in 2012. This data does not raise red flags about why the African American vote is going to the Democratic candidate, Jason Kander. A conflicting group in America's society is the male vote which, as seen by research done by the Pew Research Center, is realigning more towards the Independent Parties whereas before, the Republican Party had their majority. For example, in 2004, 35% of men were Republican, but over the next 8 years the majority had shifted towards the Independents with a 38% majority. This can somewhat be related to the current Senatorial Race in Missouri because a Republican incumbent has less than 50% of the vote which could be attributed to the decline in male, republican loyalists. Not only is Blunt losing the majority, but Kander has also capitalized on Trump’s message about a change in Washington which may be the desire of some of these former male Republicans who have switched over to be Independents.
Roy Blunt visits a local Central and Northwest Missouri Food Bank.
Jason Kander at a fundraising event for his campaign.
Roy Blunt visits a local Central and Northwest Missouri Food Bank.